In her first month as Japan’s Prime Minister, Takaichi Sanae crossed a “red line” for China when she addressed the Diet on 7 November 2025, suggesting that any possible Chinese attack on Taiwan could be seen as a “self-survival situation.” If this were to happen, Japan would be compelled to deploy the Japan Self-Defence Forces in the Taiwan Straits in pursuit of its legal right to “collective self-defence.” This year happens to mark the 80th anniversary of China’s victory in the ‘War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression’, and China has designated October 25 as the ‘Commemoration Day of Taiwan’s Restoration’ to commemorate Taiwan’s liberation from Japanese occupation. Xue Jian, China’s Consul General in Osaka, was quick off the mark to condemn Takaichi. On 8 November, he posted on X: “The filthy head that recklessly sticks itself in must be cut off without a moment’s hesitation. Are you prepared for that.” Two days later, Japan lodged an official protest against the diplomat’s remarks. The post has since been deleted.
The People’s Republic of China has taken matters much further. Chinese citizens have been told to avoid all “non-essential travel” in the near future to Japan. An estimated 500,000 flights by Chinese tourists were accordingly cancelled. Share prices in Japanese retail and tourism companies have fallen. The Chinese happen to be the largest single group of foreign visitors to Japan, with around 7.49 million of them travelling to Japan between January and September 2025. Japan also hosts some 110,000 Chinese students. Chinese airlines have offered refunds or free changes on tickets to Japan, while Japanese tour operators are predicting large losses in revenues if the travel ban were to continue. Japan’s Ministry of Education has meanwhile urged its schools for expatriate children in China to ensure the safety of their students. China has also suspended imports of Japanese seafood, which had only partially resumed earlier this year after a ban which was imposed in August 2023, following the release of treated radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi No. 1 nuclear power plant into the sea. Chinese Coast Guard patrols have been stepped up near the Southwestern Japanese islands in the East China Sea. The annual Beijing-Tokyo Forum, scheduled for this month in the Chinese capital, has been postponed, as have the screenings of two Japanese films in mainland China.
Taiwan’s coastline is only 68 miles from Yonaguni Island in Japan’s southernmost Prefecture of Okinawa. When Japan established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China in 1972, it signed up to the ‘One China’ policy, under which Taiwan is considered a province of China. Japan continued to maintain unofficial trade, business, cultural and other links with Taiwan, which had been a Japanese colony between 1895 and 1945.
Takaichi Sanae, a protégé of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, was elected Japan’s first female prime minister on 21 October 2025. Shortly thereafter, she met up with China’s President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Economic Leaders’ Meeting (ALEM) in Gyeongju, South Korea on 31 October, only to then link up with Taiwan’s representative, Lin Hsin-i, chairman of Taiwania Capital Management and an adviser to the Taiwanese Presidential office. The new ‘Iron Lady’ of Japan, an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, was first elected as an MP for the dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 1996. She is described as an “ultraconservative”, one who has the approval of President Donald J. Trump, who she met up with on 28 October in Tokyo. Her hawkishness, and her revisionist views of Japan’s wartime past, appeal to growing right-wing nationalist and militarist elements within Japan. Takaichi’s desire to revise Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution and to step up defence spending will without doubt accelerate the continuing re-militarisation of the nation, if allowed to go ahead.
China’s relations with Japan have been overshadowed by several historical disputes, including the Sino-Japanese Wars of 1894-1895 and 1937-1945. The latter conflict, often treated as part of the Second World War, saw numerous Japanese atrocities and war crimes against the Chinese. Since then, diverging historical narratives have pulled the two nations further apart in their respective recollections of the past. An unresolved territorial dispute has also to be factored in. The Diayou Islands, an archipelago of barren islands in the East China Sea, have been administered since 1972 by Japan as the Sendaku Islands, although formally claimed by China two years before then. From time to time, tensions flare up between Japan and China, before settling down, as is likely to happen on this occasion. Japan’s best interests are unlikely to be served by engaging in active conflict with its most powerful mainland neighbour. This latest outburst of bad feelings is a direct consequence of what China sees as provocative remarks by Japan’s new leader, which have invited a strong response by China but may yet shore up domestic support for Takaichi.
Ashis Banerjee