The Presidential Election in Honduras, and American Intervention to Influence the Outcome
Over six million voters in the Central American republic of Honduras made their way to polling stations across the country between 7 AM and 5 PM local time on 30 November 2025 to elect a new President, along with 128 members of the unicameral National Congress (Congreso Nacional), 20 deputies to the Central American Parliament (Parlamento Centroamericano; PARLACEN), 298 mayors, 298 vice-mayors, and 2,168 municipal councillors. The incumbent Xiomara Castro, the wife of former President Manuel Zelaya who was deposed in a coup in 2009, had come to the end of her four-year term in office and was unable to stand for re-election under the Honduran Constitution.
Under Xiamara Castro, its first female president, Honduras has been praised by the IMF for its “commitment to macroeconomic stability and social inclusion” and “prudent fiscal policy.” The Honduran economy grew by 3.6% in 2024, despite “weaker external demand-and the adverse effects of climate change on domestic production.” Castro also improved public services, introduced Red Solidaria welfare programmes, cracked down aggressively on street crime, and invested in infrastructure. The fight against corruption proved, however, to be her Achilles’ heel in the face of high-level scandals, while organised crime gangs and cartels have proven difficult to combat. Her left-wing agenda, including her support for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, was not to President Trump’s liking. Honduras’ role as a vital transit point in drug trafficking to the US also came in for increased Trumpian scrutiny.
Out of the five candidates in the single-round Presidential election, only three merited serious mention. Nasry “Tito” Asfura, 67, a former two-term mayor of the capital city of Tegucigalpa between 2014 and 2022, was the candidate for the right-wing National Party (Partido Nacional de Honduras; PNH). He gained his reputation partly through his efforts in building up the urban infrastructure in Tegucigalpa, although his time as mayor clouded by allegations of financial impropriety. Salvador Nasralla, 72, making his fourth bid for the Presidency, stood for the centrist Liberal Party (Partido Liberal de Honduras; PLH). A former sports journalist and TV sportscaster, Nasralla had served as vice-president (2022-2024) under Xiomara Castro before parting ways. Rixi Moncada, 60, was the candidate for the ruling democratic socialist party-LIBRE (Partido Libertad y Refundación, or Liberty and Refoundation Party). She had served as finance secretary (2022-2024) and then as national defence secretary (2024-2025) in the Castro administration. Asfura and Nasralla stood on pro-market platforms, whereas Moncada was for increasing state control. It should be noted that Asfura has Palestinian Arab heritage and Nasralla is of Lebanese Arab descent, reflecting a small but significant wave of Arab immigration to Honduras in the past. Presidents Donald Trump of the US and Javier Milei of Argentina have both declared an interest in the outcome of the election through their support for Asfura, leader of the National Party of Honduras. Trump even threatened to cut off aid to Honduras if Asfura were to lose the election.
During the afternoon following election day, Ana Paola Hall, president of the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral; CNE), declared a ‘technical tie’ after 57% of the votes had been counted, at which point Asfura was leading Nasralla by a mere 515 votes. The automated preliminary vote reporting system was abandoned and a manual count of the remaining votes followed. Trump was unhappy with the technical tie, accusing CNE of “trying to change” the outcome of the election. However, international observers from the Organisation of American States (OAS) and the European Union (EU) reported no major concerns with the electoral process.
Adding to outside interest in the presidential election, former President Juan Orlando Hernández was released from a federal prison- the United States Penitentiary at Hazelton, West Virgina, on 2 December 2025- following a “full and complete pardon” signed by President Trump the previous day. Trump observed that Hernández had been treated “very harshly and unfairly.” Hernández, National Party leader, first became president in January 2014. In April 2015, the Supreme Court nullified the constitutionally mandated single four-year term to allow him to stand for a second term as president. He was subsequently declared winner in a disputed Presidential election on 26 November 2017, having secured 42.95% of the vote to 41.42% for Nasralla. Alleged to have run Honduras like a “narco-state” and to have created a “cocaine superhighway to the United States”, he was arrested at his home in Tegucigalpa two months after stepping down as president and extradited to the US in April 2022 to face federal drug trafficking and firearms charges in Manhattan. Found guilty in March 2024 of conspiring to import more than 400 tons of cocaine into the US, he was sentenced by US District Judge P. Kevin Castel at the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York to 45 years in prison. Of note, his brother, Juan Antonio “Tony” Hernández, had been given a life sentence by the same court in 2021 for distributing another 165 tonnes of cocaine to the US.
At the time of writing, the results of the tightly contested Presidential election have yet to be announced. A change of leadership in Central America’s poorest country is unlikely, however, to have any significant global impact. For Honduras itself, this has become a high-stakes election, despite both leading candidates holding similar visions for the economy. The “Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine”, whereby the President seeks to reassert American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, suggests that rejecting Asfura can have potentially significant consequences to the nation. We will have to remain patient and await the popular verdict in Honduras. Whatever the outcome, it is highly likely that the losing candidate will allege electoral fraud. Such is the state of play of Honduran politics.
Ashis Banerjee