It seems inevitable that the US Presidential election will go ahead as planned on 3 November 2020, which happens to be the first Tuesday of the month. An ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, a deepening economic crisis, and President Trump’s own concerns over mail-in voter fraud have all failed so far to postpone an event that is so deeply enshrined in the US Constitution.
Electing an American President is, however, no simple matter. It isn’t enough to just tally up the votes cast for the respective candidates and to then pick a winner in the candidate who has received the most votes. The direct vote of the people does not count, by itself, in the final reckoning. The President is actually chosen by the proxy votes of so-called presidential “electors”. The electoral college system not only prolongs and adds an extra layer to the process of selecting a President, but may also lead to an unjust outcome, something which has indeed happened during recent elections.
To begin with, you have to be eligible to be nominated for President. When it comes to Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both seem amply qualified for the job. To become a US President, you have to be at least 35 years old, a native-born American, and a US resident for at least fourteen years. Both candidates are more than double the minimum age (Biden being 77 and Trump 74), both were incontrovertibly born on American soil, and both have spent their entire working lives within the boundaries of the US. None of the “birther” controversy here, which required Barack Obama to publicly display his birth certificate to allay any lingering fears that the US was about to violate the Constitution by electing a non-native-born American.
The US Presidential election is guided by Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the US Constitution (1787), as modified by the 12th Amendment (1804), the 14th Amendment (1868) and the 23rd Amendment (1961). The electoral college is a body of electors which is set up every four years solely to elect the President and Vice-President. There are a total of 538 electors, one for each US Senator (100 in total) and each US Representative (435 in all), along with three for the nation’s capital, the District of Columbia. The average Congressional district, each of which elects a single US Representative, is made up of around 711, 000 voters, but this number can vary widely between states. California, the most populous state, thus has 55 electors. On the other hand, seven of the least populous states have only three electors each. Each state legislature has its own process for choosing its electors, and there are many exclusions. Members of the two houses of Congress cannot serve as electors. US government employees are also ineligible. This includes all political, civilian, and judicial employees, as well as members of the military and law enforcement agencies.
When people cast their votes on 3 November for the party nominee of their choice, their votes are transferred to presidential electors chosen by that same party. These electors later cast these proxy votes, for either of the presidential candidates. It is assumed that a Democratic elector will vote for the Democratic nominee, whereas a Republican elector will vote for the Republican candidate. The candidate who is supported by the most electors in any given state wins all of the state’s electoral college votes, except in the states of Maine and Nebraska, where two electors are assigned in a state-wide manner and the rest are allocated on the basis of votes received in the congressional districts.
But electors do not have to vote for the candidate of the party that nominated them. For this reason, electors have to selected carefully, based upon on their previously demonstrated party loyalties. Despite this, seven “faithless” or “unfaithful” electors were identified during the 2016 presidential election, who voted for a candidate other than the one they were pledged to vote for. To prevent this unfortunate situation from happening, some states have accordingly passed laws which allow them to either impose a fine, disqualify the straying elector or even convict them for a felony.
The electors in each state meet up in December to cast their votes. These results are then tallied up by Congress and presented at a joint meeting of both Houses in January. The process comes to its natural conclusion with the Presidential inauguration on 20 January. To become President, the successful candidate has to win at least 270 electoral college votes. For various reasons, it is possible to win the electoral college and yet lose the nationwide popular vote. This has happened five times in the past-in 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016. For example, in 2000, George W. Bush won the electoral college by 271 to 266, while losing the nationwide popular vote to Al Gore by more than 500,000 votes. Similarly, Donald Trump won the electoral college 304 to 227 in 2016 but lost the nationwide popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2.8 million votes.
Despite a widespread lack of popular support, as evidenced in numerous public opinion polls since 1967, the electoral college system has its supporters. Above all, it helps perpetuate the prevailing two-party system of American politics and discourages third-party candidates from vying for power. It is believed that the system is actually fairer since it ensures that the smaller states, small towns and rural areas are allowed to have a say in choosing their president. Increased power for the states is indeed a defining feature of a constitutional republic that happens to consist of a federation of states. But what actually may happen is that states with smaller populations can end up exerting a disproportionate influence on the outcome of the election.
The electoral college system can only be abolished by amending the US Constitution. This will require either a two-thirds majority vote in both houses, which is then ratified by the legislatures of three quarters of all states. Alternatively, a Constitutional Convention, backed by legislative support, can be set up for the same purpose. Neither of these situations is likely to be achieved in the near future.
Political maps of the US frequently depict the states in either blue or red, depending on the most recent voting records of the majority of the citizens. Ironically, blue, once associated with “true-blue” conservatism, is now used to represent Democrats, while red, a favoured colour of the left, is now synonymous with Republicans. Given the polarised state of American politics, some states can be relied upon, without much doubt, to vote either blue or red. The battleground is thus concentrated on the twelve so-called ‘swing states’, where both of the major parties have similar levels of popular support and voters can be swayed to vote either way.
The US has opted to retain the electoral college to elect a President when a simpler system may have sufficed, as in many other parts of the world. The complexity of the system can lead to the perverse situation where a successful President can lose the popular vote and yet win the electoral college. While no electoral system is perfect, the American system could possibly do with a bit of tweaking, given the high-stakes nature of the election of the leader of the free world.
Ashis Banerjee