It might be premature to predict the demise of “Europe’s last dictator”, not only as dictatorship has yet to join the ranks of professions in decline, but also because other authoritarian leaders, even within the very confines of Europe itself, impatiently wait in the wings as would-be dictators in the making. Nevertheless, at the time of writing, it seems fair to confer the title of “Europe’s last dictator” upon president Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, for reasons which will soon become obvious.
Recent events have thrust the “republic” of Belarus, a landlocked Eastern European nation of 9.5 million people, which is surrounded by Russia, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States of Latvia and Lithuania, into the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Alexander Lukashenko, already the longest-serving leader in Europe, has claimed a landslide victory in the un-monitored presidential election of August 9 2020, with 80.1 per cent of the popular vote. His widely disputed electoral success has handed him a sixth term in office, meaning that he has been re-elected in the first round in each presidential election, every five years, since he first became president on July 26 1994. His opponent, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, is a housewife and a political novice who has unexpectedly become the de facto figurehead of the opposition in Belarus and an important player on the international stage. She took up the challenge after her husband, Sergei Tikhanovsky, a political activist and video blogger, was jailed on charges of inciting violence just before the election, as many of his predecessors have been in past, including most recently Victor Babariko, on June 18 2020. Tikhanovskaya fled Belarus in August and obtained sanctuary in neighbouring Lithuania, where the parliament recognised her as the legitimate president of Belarus on September 10. This official recognition of her position outside the country has provided a much-needed boost to the disenfranchised formal political opposition within Belarus.
Many Belarusians are rebelling against the prospects of being ruled by an increasingly unpopular authoritarian president, who has brutally curtailed freedom of expression, access to information and freedom of assembly while continuing to increase his stranglehold over a nation whose economy is stagnating. Since the election results were announced, scenes of widespread mass streets protests, especially in the capital city of Minsk, and reports of strikes in state-run enterprises have become commonplace and attracted widespread, and mainly unfavourable, international attention. What stands out from the media images is the heavy-handed way in which camouflaged and heavily armed riot police and military troops have clamped down on peaceful protests by unarmed citizens, many of whom are either women or older citizens of either sex. The liberal use of truncheons, tear gas, flare grenades, water cannon, and rubber bullets have all formed part of this disproportionate paramilitary response to civilian unrest, further boosting Lukashenko’s credentials as a dictator.
Belarus, once known as the Belorussian Soviet Socialist Republic, declared its independence from the Soviet Union on August 25 1991, following an earlier declaration of sovereignty on July 27 1990. Despite this newly found freedom, Belarus has had to rely heavily on Russia, for both economic and political support. Russia happens to be the largest importer from, exporter to, and creditor for, Belarus. Most importantly, Russia supplies the bulk of the nation’s energy and fossil fuel requirements. The strong political links with Russia are not difficult to understand, since both Lukashenko and his more powerful Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, appear to share fond memories of the past glories of the defunct Soviet Union. This is all based on their personal experiences. An ex-member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Lukashenko gained his experience by serving in the Soviet Border Guards and the Soviet Army, and then managing a Soviet-style collective farm, a kolkhoz, before entering politics.
Lukashenko’s Soviet preoccupation has ensured that Belarus continues to retain many of the institutions and policies of the erstwhile Soviet Union. While there have been nominal elections every five years, Belarus can be considered to resemble a Soviet-style, one-party state, with a planned economy that is dominated by under-performing state-run agricultural and industrial sectors. The independent and foreign press and online media are heavily censored by the Ministry of Information. The state controls all nine national television channels. The repressive secret police, which continues to be known as the KGB, maintains close surveillance over Belarussians, just as its Soviet namesake. Many instances of human rights abuses have been reported from within Belarus, including torture and wrongful imprisonment, confirming its reputation as a heavily policed state. Lukashenko’s actions have made him an international pariah, one who is even banned from travelling to Western Europe and the United States.
Belarus is also the only European nation to retain the death penalty, which has been used on more than three hundred occasions since independence. Capital punishment apparently has popular backing, as 80 per cent of the public voted in favour of state killing during a controversial referendum in 1996. Executions are conducted under conditions of great secrecy. Victims are shot in the head and cremated. Their remains are then sent to secret sites, the locations of which are not disclosed to their relatives. Such practices are not employed anywhere else in 21st century Europe.
At present, the situation in Belarus seems to have reached an impasse of sorts. Emboldened by the open support of Putin, Lukashenko has shown a strong desire to continue in post as president, while refusing to engage in dialogue with the opposition, who are calling him to step down and asking for new elections. But then, like other leaders of today who readily come readily to mind, Lukashenko is a “strong man”, who appears to believe that any attempt at compromise is only a sign of weakness. He prefers being in complete charge, on his own terms, and to make his own choices, as shown by his early denial of the seriousness of Covid-19 back in March 2020, followed by his inaction in dealing with the crisis that followed.
But there is always hope. Popular movements have toppled powerful eastern European regimes in the past, as shown by the dramatic fall from grace of the Ceausescus in Romania in 1989. Belarus will have to rely primarily on its own citizens, because any proposed international sanctions will most likely prove unsuccessful if Russia chooses to prop up its western neighbour for strategic reasons. However, no dictatorship can survive forever, and in Lukashenko’s case it seems that the pigeons might finally be coming home to roost.
Ashis Banerjee.