Between 2008 and 2011, as part of a government spending programme following the Great Recession, China invested in the largest infrastructure project of the generation. The high-speed rail network, the largest in the world, was expanded from 1,000 kilometres to 11, 000 kilometres in an ambitious programme of rail-line, tunnel and viaduct construction. Spending was kept in check through standardised construction techniques, cheap labour, and low land acquisition and resettlement costs, in contrast with the situation in the UK. Delivery and implementation were mostly within the allocated times for the individual projects.
Fast forward to 2019. The British Secretary of State for Transport Grant Shapps announced an independent review, involving a cost-benefit analysis, of the £55.7-billion HS2 (High-Speed Rail 2) project. The purpose was to decide whether to continue with, or to abandon construction, in the latter case avoiding further expenditure on a possibly non-viable project because of a sunken costs fallacy. Until this time, £7.4 billion had already been spent on HS2, yet estimates of projected costs had risen to £85 billion and even higher. Interestingly, the review was to be chaired by Douglas Oakervee, former chairman of HS2 Limited. However, to achieve balance, Lord Berkeley, a critic of the project and former chair of the Rail Freight Group, was appointed as his deputy.
So, what is the rationale for HS2? The success of HS1, the 67-mile Channel Tunnel Rail Link between London St Pancras and the Channel Tunnel, has encouraged those who are keen to extend the high-speed rail network on the British mainland. High-speed rail traffic can potentially increase the capacity for commuter travel, reduce pressure on existing congested commuter routes and increase freight traffic, as well as providing an environmentally friendly mode of transport.
HS2 Limited, an executive non-departmental public body sponsored by the Department of Transport. was formed in 2009. The coalition government went on to approve the high-speed rail project in January 2012. . The High Speed Rail (London-West Midlands Act), authorising the construction of Phase 1, received Royal Assent in 2017.
Phase 1 of HS2 consists of a 140-mile link between London Euston and Birmingham Curzon Street in the West Midlands. The high-speed trains to be employed are capable of travelling at speeds of 186 miles per hour and above, thereby reducing travel time from 82 minutes to 45 minutes. Phase 1 is due to be completed by December 2026, although the start of civil engineering work has already been pushed back from a planned start in 2018.
The second phase, Phase 2, consists of Phase 2a (linking the West Midlands to Crewe), due to be completed by 2027, and Phase 2b (linking the West Midlands to Leeds, and Crewe to Manchester), for completion by 2033. When completed, a Y-shaped high-speed rail link will provide rapid transit between London, the West Midlands. and the North of England. This is thought likely to bring several economic benefits to the Midlands and the North through enhanced connectivity between some of the largest cities in the UK, in the process aiding the regeneration of these areas.
However, the planning stage has been beset with many doubts and delays. There are strong lobbies both for and against HS2. Many see the project as an unjustifiable expense given the many sectors of the public sector that are being starved of funding. The Stop HS2 campaign claims that the business case, funding, and environmental impact have not been properly thought through. For example, according to the Woodland Trust, 108 ancient woodlands are under threat. Many farms and hundreds of homes are the subject of compulsory purchase orders. Many of those already evicted claim not to have been recompensed for loss of their property.
Large public-funded infrastructure projects in the UK are frequently associated with major delays in implementation and delivery, coupled with massive overspends. Similar problems have affected Crossrail, albeit at a later stage of construction. Some of the delays and costs are clearly related to planning consultations, land purchases, property demolitions, archaeological and environmental impact assessments, in addition to the actual business of construction of rail lines, bridges and tunnels. What remains unclear to the public is the rate at which costs have escalated, to almost double the initial estimates.
The way things stand, it appears that we may have a white elephant in the making, unless things change for the better in future.
Ashis Banerjee (ex-London to Birmingham commuter; all of this has unfortunately come too late for me)
PS: Despite any misgivings, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, on 11 February 2020, gave the “green light” for the £106 billion HS2 project to proceed. His decision had the unanimous backing of his Cabinet.