“Toxic Trump”, The MAGA Brand, and the 2022 US Midterm Elections: A Story with an Unexpected Twist
Many American media outlets, political commentators, pollsters, and members of the public in the know, along with sundry observers from further afield, had predicted a giant “red wave”, or even a “red tsunami”, of surge in indirect support for ex-President Trump during the midterm elections of 8 November 2022. In the end, the expected red wave was confined to the state of Florida, and was being described as a ripple, at best, elsewhere. Predictions of a handcuffed Biden presidency, deprived of Democratic control of Congress, were dismissed and Trump’s potential Second Coming in 2024 suffered a temporary setback. The Republican Party suddenly became engrossed in soul-searching and engulfed by political infighting instead. The Democrats unexpectedly outperformed at the polls, despite most predictions and the historical precedent that the President’s party is prone to lose Congressional seats in midterm elections, which in turn can be considered as a referendum on the ruling party’s performance to date.
On 8 November, Americans voted for 35 of the hundred US Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives at the end of a prolonged election contest that at times had the undertones of incipient Civil War, stopping short of actual military conflict. By 12 November, the Democrats had managed to secure control of the Senate, while a slim Republican majority was being predicted in the House.
The midterm elections weren’t just a test of the Biden presidency but also of Trump’s potential to lead the Republican Party in its bid to recapture the White House in 2024. Trump’ s persona and messages were put to the test by the performances of candidates he had endorsed, guided by personal loyalty and a willingness to call the 2020 presidential election a fraud. In the process, the GOP may have identified an alternative Presidential candidate in Ron DeSantis, who was re-elected Governor of Florida in an overwhelming victory, taking in the Democratic stronghold of Miami-Dade County, and leading him to be dubbed “DeFUTURE” by The New York Post. Most of Trump’s choices were incumbents who would have won irrespective of his endorsement. The fading of Trump’s influence can be attributed to the failure of some high-profile Trump-endorsed candidates, particularly his idiosyncratic choice of some political novices, politicians with controversial views, and candidates with scandalous and unsavoury pasts, to fight important seats in key swing states. A frequently cited example is that of Dr Mehmet Oz, a media-savvy celebrity heart surgeon with unorthodox medical views, who was transported from New Jersey, only to lose a Republican-held Senate seat in Pennsylvania to the more rough-and-ready John Fetterman, lieutenant governor of the state, despite millions of dollars in campaign funding and the unstinted backing of the conservative media. Furthermore, several Republican candidates who were not backed by Trump, including some who had fallen out with him, triumphed over Trump acolytes.
Despite Biden’s falling popularity and the ravages of high inflation on the American economy, it seems that some voters may have had other pressing concerns when they made their electoral choices. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and its impact on abortion rights may have mobilised the women’s vote, while administration policies on such issues as climate change and gun control may have attracted Gen Z (18-to-24-year-old) voters. At the same time, Biden’s one-off forgiveness of student loan debt may also have been well received in some quarters.
As the extent of Republican losses became apparent, some sections of a previously supportive media turned on Donald J. Trump. Columnist John Podhoretz, in an editorial in The New York Post on 10 November, referred to “Toxic Trump”, while the Wall Street Journal and some sections of the Fox News cable channel, all parts of kingmaker Rupert Murdoch’s media empire, tempered their enthusiasm for Trump. Nevertheless, some pro-Trump politicians remained steadfast in their support for a “persecuted” and misunderstood ex-President, including particularly vocal members of the so-called MAGA caucus in the House of Representatives, such as Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia) and Matt Gaetz (R-Florida).
Despite the impact of political gerrymandering from the redistricting of Congressional districts and the continued atmosphere of election denialism in some conspiracy-prone circles, it might be reasonably concluded, at least for the moment, that democracy in America has just about survived its latest test.
Ashis Banerjee