Chaotic events in its giant northern neighbour are overshadowing the developing economic and humanitarian crisis in Cuba. Cuba’s economy, slowly strangled by America over six decades, was dealt yet another punishing blow on 29 January 2026 with the publication of an Executive Order entitled “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba.” Citing concerns over Cuba’s alliances with “numerous hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors adverse to the United States”, President Donald Trump imposed additional tariffs on imports into the US of goods from countries that indirectly or directly continue to sell, or otherwise provide, oil to Cuba. The order came into effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Standard Time on 30 January. This measure had an immediate impact, as shortages of aviation fuel curtailed flights to and from Cuba, hitting the tourist sector, while domestic consumers experienced shortages at petrol stations. The Cuban peso lost value against the US dollar, reaching an informal rate of 500 pesos to the dollar on 11 February.
Cuba was deprived of its major source of oil following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and the American expropriation of oil sales by Venezuela in January 2026. President Trump took charge of Venezuelan oil revenues, while 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil supplies were redirected to America. Cuba had become a major beneficiary of Venezuelan oil at preferential rates following a trade agreement between Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez in October 2000, which was further strengthened to become a more wide-ranging economic, political, and military partnership in December 2004. The latest Trump tariffs have also put pressure on Mexico, which became Cuba’s leading provider of oil in place of Venezuela. China has, however, promised to step in and support Cuba “in the very best way possible” as the island nation faces up to worsening fuel shortages.
US sanctions against Cuba commenced in the aftermath of the Cuban Revolution, which began on 26 July 1953 and culminated in December 1958 with the overthrow of President Fulgencio Batista, who was forced into exile in Portugal, via the Dominican Republic. Fidel Castro thereafter took over as Premier from February 1959. Castro distanced himself from the US as he nationalised American assets (sugarcane plantations, oil refineries, hotels, etc.) in Cuba, imposed taxes on U.S. imports, and negotiated a trade deal with the Soviet Union. President Dwight D. Eisenhower reciprocated and cut the import quota for Cuban sugar, placed a total embargo on US exports to Cuba, froze Cuban assets in the United States, and eventually cut diplomatic ties with the Castro government in January 1961.
A comprehensive economic and trade embargo, first proclaimed by President John F. Kennedy on 3 February 1962, remains in place today. Successive Presidents upheld, or even added to, existing sanctions, while American attempts to assassinate Castro, destabilise Cuba, and bring about regime change consistently failed. President George H.W. Bush signed the Cuban Democracy Act on 23 October 1992, forbidding vessels that had departed from Cuban ports in the previous 180 days from docking at U.S. ports and prohibiting foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies from trading with Cuba. The trade embargo was further tightened by the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, signed by President Clinton on 12 March 1996, which imposed sanctions against foreign companies that had expropriated nationalised properties once owned by US citizens in Cuba. President Obama eased some restrictions from 2014 onwards, allowing U.S. citizens to travel to Cuba for educational and religious purposes, while Cuban-Americans could henceforth send unlimited funds to Cuba. Cuba was removed from the US State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism, on which it had featured since 1982, in May 2015. The US and Cuba resumed diplomatic relations in July 2015, and Obama made the first official US presidential visit in ninety years to Cuba in March 2016.
President Trump, on the other hand, has adopted a hardline stance against the Cuban government during both his administrations. During the first Trump administration, on 16 June 2017, the President thus issued a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) on Strengthening the Policy of the United States Toward Cuba. Cuba was restored to the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism in January 2021, a decision which was reversed by the outgoing Biden administration in January 2025, only to be reinstated shortly after Trump took charge. Trump’s actions have been well-received by the influential right-wing Cuban -American community in the state of Florida, although their enthusiasm has been somewhat dented by recent ICE deportation raids on their compatriots and by the decision to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Cubans. Although President Biden eased some of the restrictions imposed by Trump 1.0, the 47th President has resumed his original trajectory during Trump 2.0. A comprehensive travel ban was reimposed in June 2025, prohibiting US citizens from visiting Cuba for whatever reason, although diplomatic ties have been retained.
Cuba, separated by just 90 miles of sea from Key West in Florida, has long been a thorn in the underbelly of America, but has somehow struggled on despite sanctions, with the help of Russia, China, and sympathetic Latin American countries. Cuba and America have engaged in a protracted cat-and-mouse game in which the cat has come out on top, although disinclined to launch a formal military attack on its diminutive opposition. After all, Cuba has relatively little to offer the US in terms of natural resources, apart from its reserves of cobalt and nickel, third-largest and ninth-largest in the world, respectively. Cuba’s sluggish economy, in recession since 2020, has been characterised by inflation, a cost-of-living crisis, food shortages, an energy crisis with frequent power outages and electricity blackouts, and crumbling infrastructure. The three main sources of income- tourism, remittances by expatriates, and export of services (healthcare) are proving insufficient to prop up the ailing economy.
President Trump’s current position on Cuba, subject to change at short notice, is somewhat ambivalent, as he toys with either making a deal with the Cuban government of Miguel Díaz-Canel or with toppling the current regime. His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, himself of Cuban-American descent, seems more hawkish in the matter. Nothing can be predicted with any certainty, as Cuba’s fate is decided under the ‘Donroe doctrine.’
Ashis Banerjee