The UK government proclaimed Monday 19 July 2021 as “Freedom Day” in England. This momentous occasion was postponed from the original date of 21 June, after continued spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19 compromised the four tests for lifting the lockdown at that time. The day would normally be an occasion for widespread jubilation. Given the particular circumstances, it appears, however, that this new promise of freedom, otherwise referred to as Step 4 on the roadmap out of lockdown, is by no means universally welcome. Many seem to have mixed feelings about the timing. Infection and hospitalisation rates are rising, while a surge of alerts or “pings” by the NHS Covid-19 test-and-trace app has led increasing numbers of contacts to self-isolate.
The sceptics include a body of scientific experts, whose views are anathema to those with anti-lockdown sentiments, but also some sections of the general public, including the elderly, the disabled, and those otherwise clinically vulnerable to Covid-19, such as people with compromised immune systems. To add to this, many otherwise healthy people are also anxious about the prospects of being infected with Covid-19 in a newly liberated England. Some world leaders share in their unhappiness, believing that England may turn out to be a reservoir for infecting the rest of the world. For example, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinta Ardern recently decried what she described as a ‘Variant Factory’ plan.
From 19 July onwards, legal restrictions aimed at containing the spread of Covid-19 will be removed. Social distancing will no longer be required, and the wearing of masks or other forms of face coverings will be a matter of personal choice, although still recommended in crowded indoor spaces. There will no limits on numbers attending both indoor and outdoor mass gatherings, including weddings, funerals, other life events, music concerts and festivals, and sporting events. Businesses yet to reopen, such as nightclubs, will be back in action. Cafés, pubs and restaurants will operate at full capacity, and pubs will not be restricted to table service only. Entertainment venues, such as cinemas and theatres, will operate as normal. Employees will be encouraged to return to their workplaces. All travel restrictions within England will be lifted, promising a boost to domestic tourism and “Staycations”.
The government’s decision to lift legal restrictions is guided by a successful roll-out of vaccines and the belief that mass vaccination has finally broken the link between infection and death. Summer seems the best time to end lockdown, with more people venturing out of doors, schools on holiday, and less seasonal ailments to afflict the NHS.
The government appears to have accepted an inevitable spike in infection rates, hospitalisations, deaths, and a likely emergence of resistant variants, all as the price to pay for opening up the economy and reducing the social costs of the pandemic, such as detrimental effects on the mental health of citizens. It seems that we are in throes of a massive public health experiment, designed to promote the much vaunted “herd immunity” , just as economic recovery proceeds apace.
Freedom Day is unlikely to turn out to be a day of unrestrained freedom. Prime Minister Johnson himself has recommended “caution”, as the pandemic is “far from over”. Many restrictions will undoubtedly continue to be enforced at a local level. Many mayors have made mask-wearing compulsory on public transport, while hospitals are mandating mask-wearing for visitors. It is likely that some other venues and organisations will choose to follow suit.
The only thing that is certain in this Covid-19 pandemic is its uncertainty, making Freedom Day at best a bit of a gamble. It is, in any case, difficult to quantify the risks of lifting lockdown, based mostly on predictive modelling. Latest indications, from government sources, are that this new phase of “freedom” is by no means irreversible, and circumstances may dictate re-imposition of lockdown measures when needed. Whatever actually happens on the day and thereafter, it seems clear that the new freedom will not be delivered in a single undiluted dose, but rather be prescribed as a series of doses. In the meantime, the pandemic lingers on and it still seems a long way to the end.
Ashis Banerjee