The world’s largest democratic exercise got under way on 19 April 2024, when India’s 968, 821, 926 eligible voters-to be precise- set about electing their representatives to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament. The expression of parliamentary democracy in the world’s most populous country, with 1.4 billion residents spread across 28 States and eight Union Territories, will require a major six-week-long logistic exercise.
Voters must be Indian citizens, 18 years of age or older, on the electoral register, and able to produce a valid voter ID card. Indian citizens living abroad can also vote, provided they have registered and are able to return to India to cast their votes in person. For the first time, the Electoral Commission has allowed disabled people and those older than 85 years to vote from home. India uses the first-past-the-post electoral system, and the winning party needs to secure at least 272 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha. The 543 elected members of parliament serve out a five-year term and represent a single constituency, with 131 seats reserved for MPs from the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. The President of India nominates an additional two members.
The Indian election will be conducted in seven phases, between 19 April and 1 June 2024, followed by the official announcement of results on 4 June. Polling will take place on 19 April (102 seats), 26 April (99), 7 May (95), 13 May (96), 20 May (49), 25 May (57), and 1 June (57). Nearly 1.5 million polling booths have been set up across the country, mostly in educational institutions and community centres. India relies on a direct-recording, paper-less electronic voting system. The Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) currently in use are manufactured in India by the state-owned Electronics Corporation of India (ECIL) and Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL). These EVMs can be taken to remote areas by boat, camel, or helicopter, ensuring that no one is left out. Voters can press one of the blue buttons placed against the name, serial number, and symbol of the candidate of their choice, or opt for “none of the above.” After casting their ballots ballots, voters are marked with indelible ink on one index finger, which remains in place for up to two weeks, to prevent them from voting again.
India has six recognised national political parties and 58 recognised regional (state-level) parties. The six national parties are the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M), Indian National Congress (INC), and National People’s Party (NPP). The two leading players in the 2024 election are the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), within which coalition partners participate in seat-sharing arrangements. The incumbent Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is seeking a third consecutive term in power and has set himself a target of at least 400 parliamentary seats.
Specific areas of contention between the two major alliances include such Modi second-term initiatives as the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 (Indian citizenship rights for non-Muslim migrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan), the repeal of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution in 2019 (removal of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir state), the 2019 ban on the triple talaq practice of instant divorce under Muslim family law, and consecration of the Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir in Ayodhya on 22 January 2024. Congress leaders who oppose these initiatives are accordingly being portrayed as “Muslim appeasers.” Popular vote-winners for Modi include the offers of free rations for the poor, and free medical treatment of up to Rs 500,000 for 550 million of the poorest citizens.
Congress seeks religion-based quotas for education, jobs, and welfare benefits that allegedly favour the Muslim minority, while the BJP considers these quotas more appropriate for poorer members of the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes. Under Modi’s leadership, India has witnessed a Hindu religious and cultural revival, thereby increasing anxieties among its more than 20 million Muslims, who comprise 15 per cent of India’s population. Islam is also reportedly growing faster than Hinduism in India, even as the growth rate of Muslim populations is slowing. Congress has continued to subscribe to its founding secularist principles, in the process being labelled as a “pro-Muslim” and “pro-Pakistan” party.
The Congress-led INDI Alliance, which was formed in July 2023, is finding it particularly difficult to maintain unity among electoral partners with conflicting ideologies and interests. Its key partners include the Aam Aadmi Party (Delhi), All India Trinamool Congress (West Bengal), and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (Tamil Nadu). The dominant Indian National Congress has been led by a Nehru-Gandhi dynastic succession since Independence, although Maneka Gandhi and her son Varun have at various times stood as BJP candidates. Modi thus frequently refers to opposition leader Rahul Gandhi as “Shehzada”, or Prince. Mutual accusations of corruption and crony capitalism by both parties have characterised their respective electoral campaigns. In most states, local issues and identity politics have spiced up electoral debates. In keeping with a long-standing tradition in Indian politics, celebrity figures such as Bollywood actors, regional thespians, and sports personalities are contributing their special insights to both sides of the political divide.
From a wider perspective, India, or Bharat, its original Sanskrit appellation that is also preferred by Modi, is a major global economic and geopolitical power, with the world’s fifth largest economy and the fastest growing major economy in the G20, also benefiting from a large and youthful workforce. A combination of capital investments in infrastructure and connectivity; green energy transition; a thriving services sector (IT, financial services, global back-office outsourcing, tourism); an enviable digital public infrastructure; a drive towards self-reliance and self-sufficiency (Atmanirbhar), including expanding domestic manufacturing capacity and exports of high-value goods (cars, phones, semiconductors, etc.); and increased consumer spending by a growing middle-class are among the many factors that are enabling India’s economic growth. An economic slowdown during Modi’s first term is rapidly turning into an economic boom as his second term comes to an end.
The outside world is watching the Indian election keenly, recognising that the results will inevitably have a significant global impact. Early indications are that Narendra Modi is on a winning streak, buoyed by his more recent economic track record, his domestic populist initiatives, and his uncompromising India-first foreign policy. Come 4 June, which Modi has proclaimed to be the “expiry date” of the INDI Alliance, all will finally be revealed.
Ashis Banerjee