Operation Rising Lion: An Israeli Military Campaign That Commenced on Friday, 13 June 2025
Israel launched a series of “pre-emptive” aerial strikes on Iran during the early hours of 13 June 2025, with the ultimate goal of dismantling the Iranian nuclear programme. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio soon disclaimed any direct American involvement in the operation, even as President Trump called the attacks “excellent.” The planning for Operation Rising Lion is said to date back to October 2024, when Iran targeted Israel with ballistic missiles, leading to Israeli retaliation in Operation Days of Repentance. Operation Rising Lion was delayed from the spring of this year, when negotiations between Iran and the US began. The first round of negotiations on 12 April 2025 had been followed by four more, with a sixth scheduled for 15 June in Oman, only to be interrupted by the Israeli actions.
The largest Israeli attack on Iran since the 1980-1989 Iran-Iraq War targeted not only nuclear installations, but also ballistic missile production, storage, and launch sites; airbases; air defence systems; and the country’s top military leadership. Israeli fighter jets dropped precision-guided munitions over west and central Iran in a well-orchestrated mission of destruction. Among those killed were Major General Mohammad Bagheri (Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces); General Hossein Salami (Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC); Brigadier General Gholam Ali Rashid (Commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters); Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of the IRGC Air Force); and six leading Iranian nuclear scientists. Attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, including gas fields and oil depots, and government sites followed. The air attacks were complemented by a preliminary covert Mossad operation that had infiltrated trained operatives and explosive-equipped drones into Iran. Although not directly involved in combat operations, the US Navy has deployed three destroyers and two carrier strike groups in the region.
Iran retaliated with Operation True Promise III, comprising a barrage of drones and ballistic missiles. Initially, Israel’s ground and air-based defence systems successfully repulsed the Iranian attacks. Later, Israel’s Iron Dome was overwhelmed and breached on occasion, as Iranian missiles reached Tamra, the Tel Aviv metropolitan area (Bat Yam, Bnei Barak, Petah Tikva, Ramat Gan, Rishon LeZion), Haifa, and Be’er Sheva. The Israeli targets that were hit included residential properties, office buildings, the 1,000-bed Soroka Medical Centre in Be’er Sheva, and the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot. Many small businesses have also suffered as a result of the bombardment.
The overriding desire for the “verifiable destruction” of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities is by no means a new theme in Israel, for whom the Islamic Republic is widely believed to have posed an existential threat, over several decades. Iran has three uranium enrichment facilities, all of which were struck by the Israelis. These include the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PEEP) at the Natanz nuclear complex, 135 miles southeast of Tehran; the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP), also at Natanz; and the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), near the city of Qom. The Fordow facility is the primary site for uranium enrichment to 60%, making it a coveted target of Israeli attentions. Only the US has the potential capability to destroy the Fordow underground facility, with the help of its ‘Bunker Buster’-the GBU-57F/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, delivered by the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber. Israel also struck the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre, and the Khondab IR-40 Heavy Water Production Plant, near the city of Arak.
In May 2018, President Trump pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had been agreed to by Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, UK, US), Germany, and the EU in 2015. The JCPOA had gone into effect in January 2016, only to be described by Trump at the time as “the worst deal in history.” The ‘Iran Nuclear Deal’ was meant to restrict the Iranian civilian uranium enrichment programme, in return for relief from nuclear-related sanctions. Trump also submitted Iran to his maximum sanctions programme from 2018 onwards. Seven years later, he has called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and warned Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, that he knows exactly where he is hiding.
President Trump left the G7 summit in Canada a day early and flew back to Washington to meet with a select group of National Security Council members on 17 June. Discretion being the best part of valour, Trump then announced on 19 June that it would take him two weeks to decide on the best option in terms of US action in the Israel-Iran conflict. This decision has opened a window of opportunity and indicates that he may prefer diplomatic efforts to start with and remains open to a negotiated deal, despite Benjamin Netanyahu’s continued refusal to engage directly with Iran.
Iran has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East. Isolated by sanctions and having thus developed a siege mentality, the nation has resorted to reverse-engineering techniques to develop armoured vehicles, ballistic missiles, and drones, mostly from Chinese products, to the extent to be able to supply military hardware to its proxies, allies, and trade partners. Iranian-made long-range ballistic missiles include the Sejil, Ghadr, Khorramshahr, Emad, and Shahab missiles, many of which are in active use in the present conflict. Yet at the same time, Iran has been rendered vulnerable from a lack of preparedness for military combat, lacking intelligence capabilities and reliable civilian protection procedures.
Iran and Israel both have nuclear programmes of their own, dating from 1952 and 1956, respectively. The Iranians have consistently maintained that their nuclear programme, which went into abeyance between 1979 and the early 2000s, is intended for civilian purposes only, although their actions have at times attracted adverse scrutiny. At present, it is widely accepted that Iran does not, as of yet, possess a nuclear weapons arsenal of its own. The US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, even testified in March 2015 that “Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorised a nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.” Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) has stated that any existing knowledge of Iran’s nuclear programme cannot be used to justify military action. Israel, on the other hand, is believed to be one of nine countries with nuclear weapons, along with the US, UK, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea. It is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and hence the IAEA is not authorised to inspect, verify, and monitor Israel’s nuclear set-up.
Iran’s leadership has categorically refused to surrender under threats by Israel and the US and condemnation from elsewhere. The nation may have some fallback positions to turn to, if sufficiently threatened. Iran could potentially disrupt the global economy by blockading the Strait of Hormuz between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, thereby preventing the transit of millions of barrels of oil each day. It could also withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and go its own way. Iran could also further escalate matters in the region by targeting American military bases.
Regime change has been cited as a possible desirable outcome of the present armed conflict, but this would take Iran into uncharted territory, as this has happened before in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya with most undesirable results. The opposition is weak and fragmented, lacking an outstanding leader. Many opponents of the Iranian regime are in exile, while Baluchi and Kurdish separatists threaten Iran’s sovereignty from within.
The ongoing conflict between the Middle East’s only democracy and a theocracy rooted in Shiism, both seeking each other’s destruction, has no guaranteed military solution and no readily definable end-game. Civilians are being killed, in far greater numbers in Iran than in Israel, while many others are fleeing their homes in both countries. Foreigners are being evacuated from the uncertainties of the war-torn zone. As the conflict continues, with no immediate possibility of resolution, not even a temporary ceasefire, we are once again reminded of the ultimate futility of military conflict to resolve matters that are best resolved by cool-headed diplomacy.
Ashis Banerjee
PS President Trump ended all speculation, sooner than expected, and well within the two weeks he had given himself to arrive at a decision. On 21 June, B-2 stealth bombers from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri dropped six Bunker Buster bombs over Fordow, while submarines directed 30 Tomahawk missiles towards Natanz and Isfahan. In the televised Oval Office speech that followed, the President confirmed that “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. The strikes were a spectacular military success.” What follows hereafter is anybody’s guess.