Pakistan’s turbulent political history, ever since it gained independence from Britain in 1947, can be best summed up as that of an unstable democracy, interrupted by military coups (1958, 1977, and 1999) and martial law administrations, and marred by weak regulation, institutionalised corruption (government, judiciary, law enforcement), ethnic nationalism, religious extremism, and communal majoritarianism (suppression of religious minorities). No prime minister of Pakistan has ever completed a full five-year term in office, being either assassinated, deposed by constitutional means, persuaded to resign, or forcibly removed by the military. The latest prime minister, Imran Khan Niazi, was not about to buck the trend, as he recently faced a no-confidence motion in the 342-member National Assembly, Pakistan’s parliament. A simple majority is all that is needed to confirm lack of confidence in a leader, and it seemed likely that Imran Khan would not obtain the 172 votes necessary for his survival.
Imran Khan established his reputation as an outstanding cricket all-rounder who led Pakistan to victory in the 1992 World Cup, while his exploits as a jet-setting “playboy” provided a constant supply of fodder for the gossip columns. Since leaving cricket and moving back to Pakistan, he has cultivated a persona as a populist and crusading politician and a devout Muslim, coming to power with promises to eliminate corruption, reform the economy, create jobs, and build homes. He formed a coalition government after the 26 July 2018 election, with military backing, and was sworn in on 18 August as 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan, which is home to over 212 million Muslims and the world’s second-most populous Muslim state. He had earlier launched his political career by founding the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party (PTI) in April 1996, which aimed, in his own words, to bring “good governance and social justice to the people of Pakistan, and make Pakistan a just and humane society”.
The no-confidence motion, triggered by the defection of the seven parliamentarians of coalition partner MQM (Muttahida Qaumi Mahaz, or United National Movement) to the opposition, was submitted on 8 March 2022. Imran Khan responded with great speed and vigour to what he described as “blatant interference in domestic policies by the United States.” Qasim Khan Suri, deputy speaker of the National Assembly and a member of Imran Khan’s party, soon obliged his leader by dismissing the no-confidence motion, which was to be voted upon on 3 April, “in accordance with the constitution”. Suri invoked Article 5 of the constitution, according to which “Loyalty to the state is the basic duty of every citizen”, in support of his decision. Pakistan’s President, Arif Alvi, then delivered the coup de grace, on Imran Khan’s very advice, dissolving the National Assembly on 3 April in preparation for early elections, to be held within 90 days. Under Article 224 of the constitution, the President was to appoint an interim prime minister, in charge of a caretaker government. The opposition meanwhile took matters in its own hands and anointed Shahbaz Sharif, opposition leader and brother of exiled founder of PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) Nawaz Sharif, as its own choice of prime minister. It is now up to a three-member bench of the Supreme Court to decide upon the course of action.
Whichever way you look at it, the position of prime minister of Pakistan can be considered a poisoned chalice. The political situation in the country remains volatile, and Pakistan has stopped short of developing a political system that is appropriate for its diverse population, which is further splintered by unrelenting demands for provincial autonomy. Politics in Pakistan is dominated by sectarianism, tribalism, factionalism, and nepotism, among other “isms”. Political leaders are frequently motivated by self-aggrandisement, being driven by a desire to consolidate their power bases and to further line their already deep pockets. The political landscape has been consistently dominated, since independence, by an uneasy tension between Pakistan’s political and military leaders, with the army often feeling compelled to directly intervene in matters of state and effect regime change
Pakistan’s economic development has been hindered by political conflicts, security issues, especially with neighbouring India, and energy shortages. The nation’s developing economy is largely based upon agriculture, light industries, and the provision of various services. The services sector accounts for more than half of GDP. The light industries of Pakistan include the production of textiles, cement, and fertilisers, metal processing, and oil refining. A lack of investment in infrastructure means that heavy manufacturing remains underdeveloped by comparison. Pakistan’s leading exports are cotton textiles and apparel and agricultural products (rice, fruit, vegetables), and it relies on imports for petroleum and petroleum products, fertilizer, and consumer goods, among other commodities. The mixed economic system features a large informal sector; an inefficient state sector, with loss-making State-Owned Enterprises; lack of diversification of exports; low levels of foreign direct investment; and a narrow tax base. “Human capital” is underutilised, and there is a critical shortage of relevant skills. Investment in education and healthcare has not kept up with demands. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has further added to the problems of an economy crippled by rising inflation and depreciating currency, although less recourse to lockdowns may have limited the economic effects of the virus.
Imran Khan has meanwhile been involved in a game of political brinkmanship, as he courts Russia, stands up to the United States, cultivates China, and keeps up the pressure on India. Whatever his international standing, there can be no doubt that Imran Khan has settled comfortably into the mould of Pakistani politics, and even if he does retain his position as prime minister, he is unlikely to prove the transforming force in Pakistan that he may have originally set out to be, based on his more recent track record.
Ashis Banerjee
PS: On 10 April 2022, Imran Khan became the first Prime Minister of Pakistan to lose a no-confidence motion after the Supreme Court ruled in favour of the opposition and allowed voting to proceed as originally planned.