Outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak emerged from No 10 Downing Street at 10 40 AM on 5 July 2024, during a break in the rain, to deliver an apologetic speech from behind a lectern, avoiding the drenching that accompanied his recent announcement of a snap General Election on yet another wet and windy day. He then took the hand of his wife Akshata, walked to a waiting car, and was driven off to Buckingham Palace to hand in his resignation to King Charles III, thereby ending twenty months as the first British-Asian leader of the nation. He will remain leader of a disunited and somewhat tired-looking Conservative Party, afflicted with infighting and a lack of unified direction, until a suitable replacement can be found and agreed upon.
As the results of the 4 July elections to the 650 seats in the House of Commons drifted in, the exit polls predicted an overwhelming Labour majority, in keeping with several earlier opinion polls. At 5 AM on 5 July, after Labour secured the 326 seats necessary for a majority, Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer informed party supporters that “a weight has been lifted, a burden finally removed from the shoulders of this great nation.”
The newly elected cohort of MPs includes 412 Labour, 121 Conservative, 72 Liberal Democrat, five Reform, four Green, nine Scottish National Party, four Plaid Cymru, and six Independent members, as well as 18 MPs representing the various political parties of Northern Ireland. London’s 75 seats have been shared between 59 Labour, nine Conservative, six Liberal Democrat, and one Independent members, with the Tory vote concentrated in the Brexit-voting peripheries, beyond the four inner London travel zones.
This 174-seat Labour majority is a direct result of the worst-ever Conservative electoral defeat, in which a dozen Cabinet ministers and former Prime Minister Liz Truss have all lost their seats. Wales no longer has a Conservative MP, while Scotland is down to five, making Labour the leading political party in all three British nations. The Conservatives have particularly felt the impact of Labour inroads into so-called “Red Wall” northern English seats that had been wrested away from Labour control in 2019, and that of Liberal Democrats into “Blue Wall” seats of traditional southern Conservative heartlands.
Labour’s 2024 majority eclipses the 145-seat Labour majority in the 1945 general election, the 179 -seat Labour majority in 1997, and the 167-seat Labour majority in 2001. However, the first-past-the post electoral system means that the Labour 2024 majority is not an accurate reflection of the share of the popular vote. Labour secured around a third (34 per cent) of the popular vote, followed by the Conservatives (24 per cent). Reform UK’s 14 per cent share only ensured five seats, explaining why many consider some form of proportional representation to be a fairer system for selecting winners. Lower down the list are the Liberal Democrats (12 per cent) and the Greens (7 per cent).
There has been a resurgence in support for the Liberal Democrats, for whom this was their best electoral performance since 1923, enlivened in part by the eye-catching publicity stunts of party leader Sir Ed Davey. The Green Party has gained as many as four seats for the very first time, while Lee Anderson has become the first directly elected Reform UK MP, followed by four others, including newly chosen party leader Nigel Farage. Reform candidates also came second in 103 constituencies. Meanwhile, four Labour candidates have had to make way in what are considered “safe seats” for Independent pro-Palestine opponents, unhappy with Labour’s early pronouncements on the situation in Gaza. Further north, support for the Scottish National Party plummeted, as Labour won 37 of the 57Scottish seats, compared to only one in 2019, mostly at the expense of the SNP, who lost 39 of the 48 seats they had won in that same general election.
Labour jubilation, somewhat muted and decidedly not triumphalist in tone, will soon make way for the serious job of running government, from day one, at a challenging time when many citizens, from both sides of the political divide, perceive the nation to be “broken.” The House of Commons will convene on 9 July to elect a new Speaker, followed by the State Opening of Parliament and the King’s Speech on 17 July. The Labour leadership promises a “fully funded, fully costed” programme, and is reminding us that it cannot be expected to provide any quick fixes for chronic underinvestment in public services and in critical infrastructure. While Labour has stopped short of demanding “blood, sweat and tears” from the general public, it has warned us of the difficult choices and tough decisions that lie ahead, there being no “money tree” to fund all desirable aspirations. In the event, nothing much is likely to change for some time to come, apart from cancellation of the wasteful flagship Rwanda scheme, as the new government settles in, finds its feet, and gets to grips with the nation’s finances. Thereafter, it is a matter of waiting patiently for “delivery” on manifesto promises, while always hoping for the best.
Ashis Banerjee