Following President Emmanuel Macron’s recent impulsive and mistimed announcement of a snap poll, concerned centrist and leftist politicians were spurred into action to prevent a far-right takeover of France, in keeping with the principle of the “cordon sanitaire” whereby mainstream parties hope to contain the activities of extremist parties, especially those on the far-right of the spectrum. The left-wing New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire; NFP) coalition, a contemporary version of the left-wing anti-fascist Popular Front of 1936, was hastily put together on 10 June 2024, bringing together disparate political parties with divergent ideologies, all united by the desire to keep the Rassemblement National (National Rally) from forming the next French government. The NFP comprises La France Insoumise (Unsubmissive France; LFI), the Socialist Party (Parti socialiste, PS), and the Ecologists (Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts; LE-EELV), alongside the French Communist Party (Parti communiste français; PCF), Génération·s, and Place Publique (Public Square). The key players in this coalition are Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI), Marine Tondelier (LE), and Olivier Faure (PS).
The leftist NFP embarked on an electoral pact with Macron’s centrist Ensemble (Together) coalition, whereby 134 NFP-supported and 82 Ensemble-supported candidates withdrew to prevent a splitting of the anti-RN vote. This strategy paid off. Following the second round of polling, on 7 July 2024, the NFP won 188 seats, making it the largest group in the 577-seat Assemblée nationale, followed by the Ensemble coalition, with 161 seats. The RN and its ally, Les Républicains (The Republicans), were left with 142 seats. LFI won 78 seats, making it the largest single party within the NFP, followed by 65 seats for the PS, 33 for the Greens, and nine for the PCF. No single party came close to securing the 289 seats required for an absolute majority, leading to a hung parliament, the threat of fragile coalitions, and months of political instability. The NFP and Ensemble have refused to collaborate in the formation of a government, making it likely that a period of cohabitation will ensue. Cohabitation brings together a President without a governing majority in the Assemblée nationalewith a prime minister from another party with a larger number of seats. France has already been through three periods of cohabitation since the Second World War, from 1986 to 1988, 1993 to 1995, and 1997 to 2002. As expected, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered to resign, although Macron has asked him to stay on as a caretaker to maintain “stability”, with less than three weeks for the opening of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games.
The NFP’s tax-and-spend agenda includes raising the minimum monthly wage from 1,600 euros to 2,000 euros, capping the price of certain essential foods and energy (electricity, fuel, gas), abandoning plans to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 and instead lowering it back to 60, and investing in renewable energy while moving away from nuclear power. The NFP’s redistributive policies include increasing public sector jobs and pay, introducing a wealth tax for the rich, and cutting income tax for low- earners.
The RN was wrongfooted by the NFP campaign. Celebrations at the RN campaign event at the Pavillon Chesnaie du Roy in the Bois de Vincennes, east of Paris, were curtailed, while jubilant NFP supporters celebrated at the Place de la Republique in Paris. RN leader Jordan Bardella criticised the opposition tactics and also the choice of some novice candidates with xenophobic and racist views as detrimental to his party’s electoral prospects.
The RN now intends to capitalise on its electoral gains in the European Parliament by joining the Patriots for Europe, a newly-formed far-right alliance of 84 MEPs from 12 EU countries. The other members of this group include Fidesz-Magyar Polgári Szövetség (Hungarian Civic Alliance), Akce nespokojených občanů (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, Czechia), Freiheitliche Partei Österreich (Freedom Party of Austria), Lega (League, Italy), Vox (Voice, Spain), Partij voor de Vrijheid (Party for Freedom, Netherlands), Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest, Belgium), Danske Folkeparti (Danish People’s Party), Foni Logikis (Voice of Reason, Greece), and Latvija pirmajā vietā (Latvia First).
The NFP has temporarily halted the advance of the RN, which nevertheless remains a major force to reckon with, as demonstrated by its recent electoral gains. The divisive politics of extremists on both sides of the political spectrum are here to stay and will continue to define politics in France for years to come.
Ashis Banerjee