The centrepiece of the second Trump administration’s domestic policy agenda (H.R.1), officially referred to as ‘The One Big Beautiful Bill Act’, was dragged through the House of Representatives on 22 May 2025, just in time for the Memorial Day holiday on 26 May. The amended budget reconciliation Bill scraped through with a one-vote majority (215 to 214). In what was a strictly partisan vote, two Republicans dared to join the Democrats to oppose the Bill. Three other Republicans either abstained or did not participate in the voting as they had fallen asleep.
Passage of the Bill was enabled by the budget reconciliation process, which expedites legislation that directly impacts the federal budget (revenue, spending) and the debt limit. Reconciliation requires both the House and Senate to first agree on a revenue and spending framework-a “Budget Resolution” that includes “reconciliation instructions.” Bills can then be passed by a simple majority in both the House and the Senate, which is convenient when one party controls Congress and the Presidency. Normally, the procedure of cloture requires at least 60 votes in the Senate to end debate and allow voting on a Bill. As the Senate in the 119th US Congress consists of 53 Republican and 47 Democrats or Democrat-voting Independents, Republicans could not rely on 60 votes to prevent any legislative delays from filibusters. Budget reconciliation was introduced in 1980, as a result of the 1974 Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act, and since then has been used 27 times previously, with 23 reconciliation bills being signed into law.
The massive Big Beautiful Bill, which runs to over 1,000 pages, comes with its own health warning: “Loading the XML/HTML in a new window (2MB) may take several minutes or possibly cause your browser to become unresponsive.” The various provisions of the Bill are contained in eleven Articles, related to the respective Committees of the House of Representatives. As might be expected from legislation of such magnitude and such far-reaching consequences, it has created both losers and winners.
Taxes are normally raised so that governments can spend. “Historic tax cuts for small businesses and ordinary Americans” will thus require to be offset by cuts in government spending, in this case targeting the most vulnerable Americans. The proposed cuts did not go far enough for Republican budget hawks, and it was only after much negotiation behind the scenes that the House Freedom Caucus was cajoled into supporting the Bill. The Bill extends or makes permanent various provisions of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which mostly benefited corporations and wealthier taxpayers. The so-called ‘Reverse Robin Hood Bill’ will disproportionately reward the wealthy at the expense of poorer and marginalised members of society.
The net effects of the Bill contradict the stated intention to reduce the federal debt and budget deficits. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that about $2.3 trillion will be added to the national debt over the next ten years. This will negate Trump’s efforts to bring down America’s $36.2 trillion budget debt. Lost tax revenues are estimated at $4.6 trillion over ten years, the effects from which will be keenly felt by those on federal government assistance programmes.
Cuts to the Social Security safety net will see stricter eligibility criteria for Medicaid, health insurance under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programme (SNPA)-better known as “food stamps.”. The clean energy transition will be reversed by energy deregulation, as drilling for gas and oil, and coal mining are back in favour. Public lands will be leased for drilling, mining and logging, Existing clean energy programmes will be rolled back, and the Biden administration’s clean energy tax credits, introduced as part of the Inflation Reduction Act 2022, will come to an end.
Other losers include public education. The incomes of colleges and universities will be affected by higher taxes on college endowments and elimination of certain tax breaks. Caps in federal aid for low-income students will limit student loans and make higher education, especially at prestigious institutions with higher tuition fees, less accessible for those from poorer family backgrounds. Public funds will be redirected to fund private school vouchers, further increasing inequalities in the educational system.
On the other hand, defence spending will be boosted by $150 billion, including $24.7 billion for one of Donald Trump’s pet projects- the “Golden Dome for America” national ballistic and cruise missile defence system. Another winner is border security, with around $47 billion earmarked for the “Border Barrier System” on the US-Mexico border. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will benefit from $45 billion for new detention centres, boosting America’s mass detention and deportation programme. A $ 16.2 billion recruitment will fund the hiring of new ICE, Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and Border Patrol agents.
President Trump, who will turn 79 on 14 June this year, is a man in a hurry. It thus makes sense for all his policies to be bundled into one massive Bill, thereby allowing fast-tracking of his ‘America First’ agenda into law. The next hurdle lies in the US Senate, following which we can be certain of America’s intended direction of travel.
Ashis Banerjee