Donald Trump confounded his critics, as well as many pollsters and political pundits, by his decisive victory in the US Presidential Election on 5 November 2024, thereby becoming 47th President and only the second US President since 1892 to win two non-consecutive terms in office. The first votes were cast by the six residents of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, at the stroke of midnight, in keeping with a tradition dating back to 1960. By 6 November, Trump had surpassed the 270 Electoral College votes required for a majority by winning in Wisconsin, securing 295 Electoral College votes to 226 for Kamala Harris, and had also gained a 50.9 percent majority in the popular vote, with 72, 531, 440 votes to 67,871,576 for his opponent. Crucially, he took all seven key background states. Trump also became the first Republican to win the popular vote since 2004, having been overtaken by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Democratic wins were confined to the West Coast, New England, and the states of Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, and Virginia. These election results await official certification, subject to recounts and overseas ballot returns, but are unlikely to be subject to any significant challenge.
Far from turning out to be an election ‘too close to call’, complicated by foreign interference, electoral fraud, disputed votes, and multiple recounts, it all ended rather smoothly. Kamala Harris rapidly conceded defeat in a speech at her alma mater, Howard University in Washington DC, on 6 November, leaving the way clear for a peaceful transfer of power. Trump reaped the benefits of an energetic and combative campaign in which he concentrated on his rallies, cable TV appearances, podcasts, and social media, including his own Truth Social site; survived an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally on 13 July; and participated in just the one televised debate with his opponent- on 28 June. He turned out to be an accomplished ‘digital campaigner’, in contrast with Harris’s more ‘analogue campaign.’ The Democrats were disadvantaged by the delayed withdrawal of an obviously ageing Joe Biden from the race and by the somewhat uninspiring campaign performance of his successor, who failed to benefit from her multiple celebrity endorsements.
In his victory speech at West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida, Trump acknowledged a “magnificent victory for the American people” and promised “the golden age of America”, made possible by his “unprecedented and powerful mandate.” On a positive note, he said it was “time to put the divisions of the past four years behind us.”
Interesting times lie ahead. Trump’s transactional style of government; his promise of corporate tax cuts, tariffs on imported goods, and financial deregulation to boost the American economy; his desire to strengthen the nation’s southern borders against continued arrivals of Central Americans; his threat of mass deportations of illegal migrants; his zeal for fracking and drilling for oil, or “liquid gold”; and his anti-abortion and pro-gun stance have all proved to be vote-winners in a bitterly fought campaign marred by undignified personal attacks on both sides. On 6 November, stock markets responded favourably to Trump’s economic plans, which include appointing Elon Musk to head a government efficiency commission, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S& P 500, and Nasdaq Composite index reached record highs. The dollar index, bank shares, and 10-year Treasury yields also rose, while bond prices fell. Shares in Trump Media and Tesla also benefited from Trump’s victory.
Donald Trump is in an unassailable position as he enters the White House with the legislative backing of a Senate majority and the strong likelihood of a majority in the House of Representatives, alongside the judicial support of a Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority. He will further consolidate his position with an assuredly loyal White House staff, having learnt from any mistakes in his first term. In a deeply polarised America-a battleground of multiple ‘culture wars’-national regeneration will, however, require an emphatic reassertion of Abraham Lincoln’s statement that “a nation divided against itself cannot stand.” The Trump inauguration is scheduled for 20 January 2025, when a turbo-charged new administration will take over from its soon-to-be predecessor.
Political prediction remains an imprecise and imperfect business, especially in the unstable world we now live in. Our hope for the future is that a reinvigorated Donald Trump will be instrumental, as he has promised on many occasions, in helping end the current conflicts in Israel and Ukraine. Only time can tell, as we let events speak for themselves.
Ashis Banerjee