2024 is fast approaching, but there seems little prospect of an early end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, even as an easily distracted world shifts its attention to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Successive military actions, mostly confined to the east and south of Ukraine, have led to a series of territorial gains and losses which fall far short of an outright victory for either party to the conflict. The commitment to a military solution from both sides has led to a war of attrition, with no clear end in sight. Meanwhile, both parties to the conflict continue to be fed with arms, ammunition, drones, tanks, and other military hardware by their benefactors, thereby perpetuating the war.
Russia’s “Special Military Operation” opened with a large-scale, combined land, sea, and air invasion of Ukraine from the north, east, and south on 24 February 2022, in the largest military action on European soil since the Second World War. Russia yearns for the “demilitarisation and de-Nazification” of its neighbour, feeling threatened by an eastward expansion of NATO, while also seeking to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of eastern Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has earlier expressed his desire to reunite people with their common historical origins in “Ancient Rus”, outlined in an article entitled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”- issued in his official position as President of Russia on 12 July 2021.
Russia seeks to consolidate and build on its territorial gains in Ukraine, which in turn demands a return to its pre-invasion borders along with the return of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. In a revival of the Cold War, the West has promptly rallied behind Ukraine, imposing massive sanctions on Russia within two days of the invasion, while refugees began to flood into Ukraine’s neighbours. Despite the circumstances, support for Ukraine was by no means unanimous to begin with and may have declined with the passage of time. On 2 March 2022, 141 out of 193 UN member states voted in an emergency UN General Assembly session to condemn Russia’s invasion and demand its immediate withdrawal from Ukraine. Five nations, including Russia itself, voted against the resolution, while the abstainers included China, India, some former Soviet republics, and several African and Latin American countries. Support for Ukraine within its allies is by no means universal, as demonstrated by the actions of Hungary and Slovakia in the EU, and by the reluctance of MAGA Republicans and other right-wing groups in the US to support the Ukrainian cause.
The first phase of the invasion, between 24 February and 7 April 2022, was marked by Russia’s capture of the southern port city of Kherson (3 March), its shelling of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant-largest in Europe (4 March), and the bombing of a theatre in the southern port city of Mariupol (16 March). The Russian advance towards central Ukraine ended in a retreat from the capital region of Kyiv by 6 April, leaving in its wake evidence of a civilian massacre in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha.
The action was thereafter concentrated along the south-eastern front, from 8 April to 28 August 2022. Highlights of this period include the sinking of Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the Moskva (14 April), the launch of a major Russian offensive in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (18 April), the capture of Mariupol (21 May), and the fall of Lysychansk, the last Ukrainian-controlled area in Luhansk (3 July). Through its actions, Russia was able to secure a land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula.
Ukrainian counteroffensives followed, between 29 August and 11 November 2022. The retaking of Kherson on 11 November was followed by what has been described as the second stalemate, between 12 November 2022 and 7 June 2023. This period witnessed the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam (6 June 2023), and the beginning of a long-drawn out battle for the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk, from 1 August 2022 onward. A second Ukrainian counteroffensive in Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast) and Southern Ukraine (Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts) began on 4 June 2023.
As it stands, the war is being fought on multiple fronts over a large area. Further details of individual actions would be of interest to military analysts, strategists, and historians, and others fascinated with the intricacies of warfare, without making the general public any wiser. It is worth noting, however, that the Ukraine conflict has involved the participation of novice conscripts, foreign volunteers, large and organised paramilitary groups (Azov Brigade, Wagner Group), and smaller private militias (Freedom of Russia Legion). Most recently, there are indications that Ukraine’s military strategy may be faltering, leading the defence minister and six of his deputies to lose their jobs in September 2023, while the commander of the Territorial Defence Forces was ousted on 9 October.
The lack of reliable information from the frontline, the biased reporting of events, and the spread of deliberate misinformation have clouded a wider understanding of the conduct of the war and the progress made by the opposing sides, while propaganda and polarised rhetoric have further muddied the picture for an international audience.
Whatever the final outcome, many lives have been lost (9, 614 verified civilian casualties as of September 2023, according to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights), many more have been injured, homes and even entire villages have been destroyed, towns and cities have been bombed, critical infrastructure has been rendered unusable, land mines have scarred the landscape, and a generation of young people has been consigned to an uncertain future. Global food, oil and gas crises have affected many far removed from the conflict zone. The human cost is indeed unquantifiable.
The conflict has become a test of Russia’s resolve, resources, and economic resilience in the face of continuing military action, that of NATO and its willingness to commit resources to a conflict in which it is most unlikely to deploy ground forces, and, above all, the ability of Ukraine to stand up to its considerably larger and more powerful neighbour. No one can be relied upon to reliably predict the ending. Thus far, third party mediation, peace talks, and the efforts of the United Nations have made little or no impact. All we can hope for is that diplomatic efforts will ultimately prevail and then be followed by lasting peace.
Ashis Banerjee