The 2026 Presidential Election in Brazil: Rapid Mobilisation of the Youth Vote and Lula’s Remarkable Comeback
Two days before his 81st birthday, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, widely known as Lula, was re-elected to a record fourth term as President of Brazil when he defeated Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator for Rio de Janeiro, in the second round of the presidential run-off on 25 October 2026. Lula romped home with 64, 256, 232votes (51.79% of the total), to 59, 826, 041 (48.21%) for Bolsonaro. His margin of victory was larger than the one he received when elected to his third term in 2022. This was the first time since the introduction of the two-round system in 1989 that a candidate had come back from behind to win the presidential run-off after finishing second in the first round. Lula overturned his opponent’s first-round lead of 2.2 million lead votes, when Bolsonaro secured 56, 104, 503 votes (47.03%) to 53, 879, 538 (45.16%) for Lula, and converted it instead to a 4.4 million lead. The turnout on 25 October was 80.8%, compared to 78.92% in the first round on 4 October.
Flávio Bolsonaro initially called for the run-off result to be annulled, disputing the order by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, a former lawyer for Lula, to extend voting by two hours. He referred to the result as a “sacaganem”-Brazilian Portuguese for “dirty trick.” However, both Lula and Bolsonaro had requested extensions, concerned about local conditions that affected voters’ ability to attend polling stations. Lula cited disruptions to bus services in São Paulo and Bahia, while his opponent was worried about heavy rains in the south of Brazil. A presidential election has never been annulled in Brazil and is unlikely to be on this occasion, given that the result was confirmed by Kassio Nunes Marques, president of the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral; TSE), who was appointed to his position by Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father. On 26 October, Bolsonaro’s party accepted the inevitable and issued a statement, to the effect that we “recognise the presidential result proclaimed by the electoral court.”
Lula’s remarkable comeback has been attributed to two major electoral strategic decisions, as he upped his game while an overconfident Bolsonaro prematurely prepared for government. Lula promised a reduction in the working week from 6 days to 5 days, and a reduction in daily working hours from 44 to 40, without cuts to pay. He also pledged to extend the Bolsa Familia social welfare programme. Of more immediate significance, the octogenarian candidate also tapped into the immense power of social media, just as he acquired his first-ever smartphone. Lula’s Army WhatsApp channel (Exército do Lula) mobilised Brazil’s young, who took to the streets, participated in mass rallies, and thronged to polling stations to cast their much-needed votes.
Lula was born in October 1945 in the northeastern state of Pernambuco, the seventh of eight children of illiterate peasant farmers. His family moved to São Paulo state in December 1952 in search of a better future. His lack of formal education did not hold him back, although he had to work along the way as a shoe-shine boy and street vendor, and as a lathe operator in a copper processing factor. Lula found his forte as a trade union activist while working in an automobile factory. He rose through the ranks to lead the ABC Metalworkers Union (Sindicato dos Metalúrgicos do ABC) from 1975 onward. He lost his left little finger in a workplace accident, leading his opponents to later nickname him “nine fingers.” In February 1980 Lula helped form the left-wing Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores; PT), Brazil’s first major socialist party.
Lula was elected President at his fourth attempt in 2002, following trial runs in 1989, 1994, and 1998. During his first two terms as President, from January 2003 to December 2010, he addressed socioeconomic inequalities by increasing the minimum wage, introducing poverty reduction programmes such as Bolsa Familia (Family Stipend) and Fome Zero (Zero Hunger), redistributing unproductive rural land under the existing National Agrarian Reform Plan (Plano Nacional de Reforma Agrária, PNRA), and encouraging home ownership under the Minha Casa, Minha Vida (My House, My Life) programme. The Growth Acceleration Programme (Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento; PAC) was intended to expand investment in infrastructure. By 2005, Brazil’s IMF loan was repaid in full, two years early. Brazil achieved sustained economic growth, an increase in exports, and a trade surplus under Lula, becoming the eighth-largest economy in the world. He left office with an 83% approval rating.
Convicted of corruption in July 2017, in relation to a corporate kickback scandal, he was sentenced to nine years in prison, only to be released in November 2019 after 580 days in custody on the grounds that he had been unfairly jailed before the appeal process had been exhausted. His conviction was annulled in 2021, leaving the way open to stand for a third term. Lula’s victory in the 2022 presidential contest was not accepted by Jair Bolsonaro, father of Flávio, who was behind the storming of federal government buildings on Praça dos Três Poderes (Three Powers Plaza) in Brasilia by far-right protesters on 8 January 2023. Bolsonaro senior is currently under house arrest, serving out a 27-year custodial sentence for his involvement in the attempted coup.
Following his inauguration on 5 January 2027, Lula will continue to operate from the Palácio do Planalto in Brasilia. Faced with rising public debt, high interest rates, and high debt servicing costs, Lula will be up against a Congress hostile to his welfare programmes. Both upper (Federal Senate) and lower houses (Chamber of Deputies) of the National Congress are currently dominated by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (Partido Liberal, PL). Meanwhile, Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes has ordered Flávio Bolsonaro to surrender his passports as part of an ongoing investigation into money- laundering. Lula’s victory will put brakes on Donald Trump’s endeavours to establish American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, as Latin America’s largest nation chooses to stay outside his sphere of influence. Ultimately, the state of Brazil’s economy will determine the success of President Lula’s fourth term in office.
Ashis Banerjee
PS Pre-empting the likelihood of domestic difficulties, Flávio Bolsonaro fled to Miami on 26 October, with the full approval of President Donald Trump. Bolsonaro and his family were granted visas by the US State Department. He managed to leave Brazil despite the cancellation of both his regular and diplomatic passports by the Brazilian Federal Police.