The AfD Party and Its Predicted Electoral Victory in the German State of Saxony-Anhalt
On 6 September 2026, voters went to one of 2,130 polling stations in the eastern German state, or Bundesland, of Sachsen-Anhalt, better known to the rest of us as Saxony-Anhalt, to elect their representatives to the state parliament, or Landtag. Exit polls indicated that the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party had won a majority of 43.8% of the popular vote, falling short of the absolute majority that would allow it to form a government on its own. The turnout of 77.8% was the highest in the state since German reunification in 1990. The AfD gained 39 seats, when 42 would have secured it an absolute majority in the 83-seat state parliament.
Ulrich Siegmund, AfD’s 35-year-old lead candidate in Sachsen-Anhalt led a highly successful campaign as a confident, charismatic, and media-friendly individual with local roots, who exuded a certain bonhomie and was not averse to signing merchandise and being included in selfies for the benefit of long queues of his many admirers. The former perfume salesman was first elected in 2016 to the state parliament, where he subsequently became co-chair of the AfD parliamentary group. He came to the attention of a wider public for his criticism of lockdown measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Siegmund, described recently in Der Spiegel as “the most dangerous man in Germany”, took advantage of growing anti-immigrant sentiment within the nation. Paradoxically, his own state has one of the lowest proportions of migrants within Germany-at the end of 2025, around 9% of the population was non-German. The western states have taken in much larger numbers of migrants.
The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt seeks deportation of all illegal migrants, detention pending deportation, and “remigration” of some refugees, although implementation may be difficult given that deportation is a federal matter. Its other policies include a return to coal, bans on same-sex marriages and on rainbow flags in schools, and the compulsory castration of cats.
The AfD was founded at a congress in Berlin on 14 April, 2013 by Bernd Lucke (economist), Alexander Gauland (publicist) and Konrad Adam (journalist)-in protest at German-backed bailouts for Greece, Ireland, and Portugal during the Eurozone crisis. The new party’s manifesto demanded, among other things, Germany’s exit from the Eurozone and a return to the Deutschmark as national currency. The first major electoral success for the new party came on 25 May 2014, when seven AfD MEPs were elected to the European Parliament. The AfD’s success was replicated in domestic elections later that year, when the party won seats in the state parliaments of Saxony in August 2014, followed by Brandenburg and Thuringia in September. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to open Germany’s borders in 2015 to as many as 1.3 million migrants and refugees, mostly from the Middle East, soon transformed the party into an anti-immigration and anti-Islamist party. The first leader, Bernd Lucke, left the AfD in early July 2015, concerned by increasing xenophobia, and formed a new party which has since sunk without trace.
The AfD secured nationwide credibility with the September 2017 elections to the federal parliament, or Bundestag, when the party won more than 90 seats with 12.6% of the popular vote and emerged as the largest opposition party to the CDU-CSU (Christian Democratic Union of Germany-Christian Social Union in Bavaria) coalition with the SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany). The AfD’s fortunes have continued to be in the ascendant, more so in formerly communist eastern Germany than in the west, where it is fast catching up. In the most recent federal elections, in September 2025, the AfD won 152 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag, with 20.8% of the vote. The AfD is currently led by Alice Weidel, an economist and former investment banker, and Tino Chrupalla. Surprisingly for an anti-LGBTQ+ party, Weidel is openly lesbian, married to a Sri Lankan-Swiss filmmaker.
The AfD was classified as “confirmed right-wing extremist” (gesichert rechtsextrem) by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution) (Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, or BfV) in May 2025. This classification is currently under review by the Cologne Administrative Court. Meanwhile, a “firewall” (Brandmauer) prevents other mainstream parties from collaborating with the AfD and entering into a coalition with it. As a consequence, the AfD has yet to participate in a governing coalition in any of the 16 states of the Federal Republic of Germany.
The state of Saxony-Anhalt, which is sandwiched between the Elbe River to its east and the Harz Mountains to the west, was once part of the German Democratic Republic (Deutsche Demokratische Republik). Many voters, especially older residents, are nostalgic for the days of the Communist regime which, despite its authoritarian nature, ensued full employment, jobs for life, childcare, holiday homes, and old age pensions for its citizens. Ostalgie (nostalgia for the East), coupled with a love for the Russian language acquired at school and an adoration of the Soviet Union, help explain why the AfD is keen to cement relations with Russia, end sanctions, stop support to Ukraine, and maintain Russian language teaching in schools.
Saxony-Anhalt is a predominantly rural state, with a shrinking population. Only the state capital Magdeburg and the city of Halle have more than 200,000 inhabitants. The chemical industry is a major employer, particularly in the chemical triangle formed by the cities of Leuna, Merseburg, and Bitterfeld-Wolden. The state’s associations with Martin Luther, making it the ‘Birthplace of the Reformation’, and the legacy of the Bauhaus school of architecture in Dessau (disliked by the AfD) are integral parts of Germany’s rich cultural heritage. The CDU has been governing party in the state since German reunification in 1990. Currently, a coalition of the CDU, SPD, and FDP (Free Democratic Party) are in charge of the state.
The AfD has successfully tapped into a revival of German ethnic nationalism, coupled with growing calls for ‘Ausländer raus’ (foreigners out). This is far from surprising. Back in 1945, one in five German adults was a member of the NSDAP, and token “denazification” in postwar Germany was a lost cause. Many Germans have felt victims of their imposed circumstances ever since, as indeed they did after the First World War. To them, Germany’s prevailing official culture of remembrance (Erinnerungskultur) is nothing more than a “guilt complex” and they aim to make Germany “great again.” The proposed tools of Germanification, including the encouragement of ethnic German motherhood and large, government-subsidised, families, are not without precedent. The next steps in Saxony-Anhalt are uncertain, and depend on the dynamics of German party politics. An AfD-led government is by no means guaranteed. We, as usual, can sit back, watch, and see where the current flows.
Ashis Banerjee